Impair is not true that the era of so-called imperial Bush, the State Police John Ashcroft and the so-called single war, hunger American people, Tuesday’s mid-term choices are a bit close like them. Impair also that the campaign far from cowed lugubrious martial arts uniform, was seen as bad, dirty, temperament and unpredictable as any I can remember.
America is still a place - and was never in danger, the place is not one - where a quantity of internal divisions. And war is not always stormy president support. Even FDR lost ground in wartime.If George W. Bush? Nobody knows. The historical context provides strong Republican losses. It is almost an iron law in U.S. policy that the chairman of the party loses ground in the first mid-term vote. Under Bill Clinton in 1994, for example, despite an economic upturn, we saw a big swing to the Republicans.
This time, Republicans in the booth with a difficult choice, the economic outlook, with a fragile and fitful. Consumer confidence has nosedived. Then there’s the model of the last two decades, voters prefer a government divided parts of domination. All these serious democratic number of benefits, including the Senate, where the true resistance against the war plans of Bush would be the greatest.
The problem is: this scenario does not seem to his defeat in the polls. Most of them show, close to national trends between Democrats and Republicans, and in some decisive race, a dead heat. In a Senate where Democrats, a majority of one (thanks to a Republican defects), at least five seats are close to cite - Arkansas, Colorado, Missouri, New Hampshire and South Dakota. In the house there is a race of similar models, but because the Republican majority is larger, there is less chance of taking control of the House of switching parties.
The only clear direction seems to be in the governorships, where the Republican ascension in the past ten years or it is clear split.As a consultant told the Washington Post last week: “Over the past 10 years, Republican governors have been the backbone of the party, the incubator of ideas, the financial situation of basic and key players in presidential campaigns. It looks like a reversal, it is this year - especially in the Middle West.
“If California is outside the scope (for Bush in 2004), the Middle West is crucial, and it is more difficult to win with democracy national central bank governors of fixing the agenda day in those countries. “But the real news is the closeness to the House of Representatives and the Senate. No page has an error rate: if a Senate race works, any policy of Make-up of America could change. How it happened? Firstly, the war undoubtedly helped to vaccinate against the Republicans historical trends. It is doubtless why they compete in all directions, never. Bush is another factor: it is even more striking for a first term President, People at this point in his tenure as all presidents since Eisenhower. His fundraising for his party was extremely rapacious (he surpass Clinton), and it is hard and fought for a long time.